Youngstown St.

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	329.0
Current RPI:	329
Expected SOS:	250
Current SOS:	250
Current Record:	6-24
Expected Record:	6-24
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-10
Current OOC Record:	0-11
Expected OOC Record:	0-11
Expected OOC RPI:	337
Expected OOC SOS:	147

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-24	329.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Youngstown St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	N	78-111	L	0%
11-18	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	A	104-84	L	0%
11-24	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	N	67-80	L	0%
11-25	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	N	71-64	L	0%
11-26	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	N	81-53	L	0%
11-29	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	H	74-81	L	0%
12-2	DePaul (186.0)	BE	A	89-73	L	0%
12-9	Butler (41.0)	BE	A	95-67	L	0%
12-18	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	A	86-62	L	0%
12-20	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	A	91-74	L	0%
12-29	Indiana (125.0)	B10	A	79-51	L	0%
1-1	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	A	77-80	W	100%
1-4	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	H	72-63	W	100%
1-6	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	H	85-74	W	100%
1-10	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	A	95-82	L	0%
1-12	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	A	93-91	L	0%
1-15	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	A	77-67	L	0%
1-18	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	H	78-92	L	0%
1-20	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	H	85-62	W	100%
1-25	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	A	66-55	L	0%
1-27	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	A	85-67	L	0%
2-1	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	H	85-95	L	0%
2-3	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	H	57-83	L	0%
2-8	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	A	100-75	L	0%
2-10	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	A	80-84	W	100%
2-14	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	H	75-73	W	100%
2-16	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	H	84-94	L	0%
2-19	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	A	70-51	L	0%
2-24	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	H	94-99	L	0%
3-2	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	N	72-71	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Youngstown St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Youngstown St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Youngstown St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Youngstown St.	Horz	26.39	26.39	19.70	19.70	-16.00	-16.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	6.07	6.07	29.03	29.03	-2.54	-2.54
Wright St.	Horz	4.46	4.46	70.00	70.00	1.79	1.79
Oakland	Horz	4.39	4.39	58.06	58.06	0.71	0.71
Milwaukee	Horz	4.36	4.36	48.28	48.28	-0.15	-0.15
Green Bay	Horz	4.36	4.36	32.14	32.14	-1.56	-1.56
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.33	4.33	46.43	46.43	-0.31	-0.31
Northern Kentucky	Horz	4.32	4.32	66.67	66.67	1.44	1.44
Detroit	Horz	4.30	4.30	14.29	14.29	-3.07	-3.07
IUPUI	Horz	4.29	4.29	34.62	34.62	-1.32	-1.32
Kent St.	MAC	1.79	1.79	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.78	1.78	60.00	60.00	0.36	0.36
DePaul	BE	1.77	1.77	33.33	33.33	-0.59	-0.59
South Dakota	Sum	1.72	1.72	72.41	72.41	0.77	0.77
Southern Miss	CUSA	1.72	1.72	37.93	37.93	-0.42	-0.42
Butler	BE	1.72	1.72	59.38	59.38	0.32	0.32
Idaho St.	BSky	1.72	1.72	40.74	40.74	-0.32	-0.32
Robert Morris	NEC	1.69	1.69	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Canisius	MAAC	1.69	1.69	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Indiana	B10	1.67	1.67	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	MWC	1.67	1.67	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Western Michigan	MAC	0.26	0.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.26	0.26	66.67	66.67	0.09	0.09
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.24	0.24	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.22	0.22	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Michigan St.	B10	0.20	0.20	87.88	87.88	0.16	0.16
Western Illinois	Sum	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.19	0.19	84.38	84.38	0.13	0.13
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.17	0.17	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
Weber St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	60.71	60.71	0.04	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.15	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	22.22	22.22	-0.08	-0.08
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Portland St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Xavier	BE	0.13	0.13	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Miami OH	MAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.13	0.13	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Niagara	MAAC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Denver	Sum	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Iona	MAAC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
FIU	CUSA	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
San Jose St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	10.34	10.34	-0.09	-0.09
Murray St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	82.76	82.76	0.07	0.07
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	BE	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Seattle	WAC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Idaho	BSky	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.08	0.08	23.08	23.08	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	15.62	15.62	-0.05	-0.05
East Carolina	Amer	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
BYU	WCC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
New Orleans	Slnd	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00